Last updated: April 29, 2020
As we’re seeing more COVID-19 reports and press releases that I can count, I have yet to see anything related to true projections. So we’ve been analyzing the current data for the United States and have created a spreadsheet to get a general idea of what we’re looking at.
Before I get to that, I have a few notes for you to keep in mind.
- The numbers are based on reports at worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
- The numbers are only based on tested and confirmed cases.
- The first reported case in the United States was on January 21st.
- Prior to Week 7 cases were slowly building up.
- At the end of Week 6 (Mar 2, 2020) there were 100 confirmed cases in the United States.
- Early reports said that COVID-19 cases double every three days.
- For our estimated projections, we’re using a 25% increase per day, which is just shy of doubling every three days.
- A 25% increase per day is actually a low estimate based on what we’ve actually seen in the past two weeks.
- The estimated projections assume that no action is taken and COVID-19 is allowed to run its course.
- We’re merely crunching numbers. We are not scientists nor medical professionals and do not know how COVID-19 will behave over time.
- We do not think the projections are what will actually happen in the long term.
- The lines highlighted in gray represent Saturday & Sunday.
WEEKS 7-8 (ACTUAL STATS)
In the past two weeks, COVID-19 cases have skyrocketed. Each day cases have increased by between 24.0% and 44.3%.
WEEKS 9-10 [PROJECTION set at 25.00% increase per day]
Many locations throughout the United States have implemented restrictions on gatherings and have requested that everyone isolate in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. Since symptoms show up in 3-14 days in most cases, the numbers below will probably be pretty close to what we see assuming that we average around 25%.
UPDATE: WEEK 9 (ACTUAL STATS)
NOTE: On March 17th the Trump administration announced that numbers will increase in clusters as test results are returned. It will not be an even curve due to this.
WEEK 10 PROJECTIONS
[Week 10 projections added on March 24, 2020, updated on March 31, 2020]
Week 9 far exceeded the 25% daily increase (doubling roughly every three days) and had an average daily increase of 37.89%.
As noted, as testing increases, the numbers will go up like this.
Also, on Monday, March 23rd, US Surgeon General Jerome Adams said: “I want America to understand: this week, it’s going to get bad and we really need to come together as a nation.”
That said, here are the projections for Week 10 based on the 25% increase we’ve been told to expect.
WEEK 10 PROJECTION set at 25.00%
UPDATE: WEEK 10 (ACTUAL STATS)
[Updated March 31, 2020]
Through the first three days of Week 10, the increase is right where they have said it should be.
GOOD NEWS. We had FOUR DAYS IN A ROW (67-70) where the percentage increase has dropped off.
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS
[Week 11 projections added on March 31, 2020]
First, the GOOD NEWS. Week 10 fell below the 25% daily increase (doubling roughly every three days) and had an average daily increase of 20.82%.
We ended Week 10 at 163,788 positive cases in the United States, an increase of 120,054 over Week 9 for an average of 17,151 new positive cases per day.
That said, we’re going to offer projections for Week 11 based on actual numbers as of Week 10.
WEEK 11 PROJECTION set at 20.82%
UPDATE: WEEK 11 (ACTUAL STATS)
[Updated April 7, 2020]
GOOD NEWS: The percentage of increase is decreasing and we ARE NOT doubling new cases every three days right now.
BAD NEWS: The number of deaths continues to climb.
The recovery rate is currently 5.36% and the death rate is currently 2.97%. Due to 91.68% of confirmed cases still being active, I wouldn’t read too much into the recovery and death rate numbers at this time.
And as a shock to no one, even President Trump is livid over China lying about their numbers and the severity of COVID-19 the entire time.
WEEK 11 FINAL NUMBERS
We ended week 11 in the United States with 367,004 total cases, 10,871 total deaths and 19,671 total recovered.
We ended Week 11 with an increase in positive cases of 203,216 over Week 10 for an average of 29,031 new positive cases per day.
We ended Week 11 with an increase in deaths of 7,730 over Week 10 for an average of 1,104 new deaths per day.
We ended Week 11 with an increase in recoveries of 14,165 over Week 10 for an average of 2,024 new recoveries per day.
WEEK 12 PROJECTION
[Week 12 projection added on April 7, 2020]
That said, we’re going to offer projections for Week 12 based on actual numbers as of Week 11, which was an average increase of 12.24% new positive cases per day.
WEEK 12 PROJECTION set at 12.24%
UPDATE: WEEK 12 (ACTUAL STATS)
[Updated April 14, 2020]
April 10th Update: Good news. The percentage of increase continues to decrease. Let’s hope that continues to be the trend.
April 11th Update: The percentage of increase continues to decrease, but we’re still sitting around 34,000 new positive cases per day, most of which are in New York. The mortality rate sits at 3.73% while the recovery rate sits at 5.43%. This leaves over 90% of cases still active.
April 12th Update: The percentage of increase continues to decrease AND the number of new cases has dropped.
April 13th Update: The percentage of increase continues to decrease AND the number of new cases has dropped again. We are far below the projection for the week which is a very good sign.
WEEK 12 FINAL NUMBERS
[Added April 14, 2020]
We ended week 12 in the United States with 586,941 total cases, 23,640 total deaths and 36,948 total recovered.
We ended Week 12 with an increase in positive cases of 219,937 over Week 11 for an average of 31,420 new positive cases per day. This is an average increase of 6.95% per day, which is far below the 12.24% that we saw in Week 11.
We ended Week 12 with an increase in deaths of 12,769 over Week 11 for an average of 1,824 new deaths per day.
We ended Week 12 with an increase in recoveries of 17,227 over Week 11 for an average of 2,468 new recoveries per day.
WEEK 13 PROJECTION
Based on the fact that it appears that we’re on the downswing, our Week 13 projection is based on the 4.75% that we saw on April 13th. Assuming the slowdown continues, these numbers should be on the high side. Once we see what Week 13 numbers look like we’ll be able to have a better idea of what the true downswing numbers will look like.
WEEK 13 PROJECTION set at 4.75%
[Week 13 projection updated on April 14, 2020]
UPDATE: WEEK 13 (ACTUAL STATS)
[Updated April 21, 2020]
April 15th Update: On April 14th the percentage of increase in new cases continued to decrease, which is a welcome sign. Unfortunately, deaths continue to increase and were greater than new recoveries.
April 16th Update: On April 15th the percentage of increase in new cases increased substantially. This could be due to reporting lags though. New deaths were up as well.
The good news, however, is that we had our single best number of new recoveries reported, at 9,881. While still far below the number of new cases and new deaths, this is a move in the right direction.
April 17th Update: On April 16th the percentage of increase in new cases decreased again. New deaths were much lower than the day prior and new recoveries were 8,807.
April 21st Update: Right now it would appear that Week 12 was the peak and we’re now heading downward.
We’re going to skip the Week 14 positive case projection and just report the numbers as they come in. Due to the number of cases still listed as active, mortality and recovery numbers will be something to keep an eye on though.
Due to states looking into reopening the economy, this is still a fluid situation which we’ll monitor and report accordingly.
WEEK 14 (ACTUAL STATS)
[Updated April 28, 2020]
April 28th Update: We’re still sitting at a plateau of very similar weekly totals.
On the 24th we actually had a new one-day high in new positive cases. And on the 27th we surpassed the one million mark for positive new cases.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Please pay attention to suggestions made by local, state & federal government authorities. By doing so we can stop the spread of COVID-19 and get back to life as normal sooner rather than later.
Do not make the federal government to be forced into setting mandatory quarantines as other countries have done. That option is “on the table”, but please think of yourself AND others so that card doesn’t have to be played.
If you have anything to report or concern to voice, please leave us a message on the Buzzline at 317-891-4627. Any messages might be played on a future episode of Naptown Buzz. And you can always contact us via our online form as well.