United States COVID-19 Case Count Projection

As we’re seeing more COVID-19 reports and press releases that I can count, I have yet to see anything related to true projections. So we’ve been analyzing the current data for the United States and have created a spreadsheet to get a general idea of what we’re looking at.

Before I get to that, I have a few notes for you to keep in mind.

The numbers are based on reports at worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
The numbers are only based on tested and confirmed cases.
The first reported case in the United States was on January 21st.
Prior to Week 7 cases were slowly building up.
At the end of Week 6 (Mar 2, 2020) there were 100 confirmed cases in the United States.
Early reports said that COVID-19 cases double every three days.
For our estimated projections, we’re using a 25% increase per day, which is just shy of doubling every three days.
A 25% increase per day is actually a low estimate based on what we’ve actually seen in the past two weeks.
The estimated projections assume that no action is taken and COVID-19 is allowed to run its course.
We’re merely crunching numbers. We are not scientists nor medical professionals and do not know how COVID-19 will behave over time.
We do not think the projections are what will actually happen in the long term.
The lines highlighted in gray represent Saturday & Sunday.

WEEKS 7-8 (ACTUAL STATS)

In the past two weeks, COVID-19 cases have skyrocketed. Each day cases have increased by between 24.0% and 44.3%.

WEEKS 9-10 [PROJECTION set at 25.00% increase per day]

Many locations throughout the United States have implemented restrictions on gatherings and have requested that everyone isolate in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. Since symptoms show up in 3-14 days in most cases, the numbers below will probably be pretty close to what we see assuming that we average around 25%.

If the average increase is more than 25%, we’d see the following results by March 30th:

27.5% = 138,007 cases
30.0% = 181,119 cases
32.5% = 236,472 cases
35.0% = 307,207 cases

UPDATE: WEEK 9 (ACTUAL STATS)

NOTE: On March 17th the Trump administration announced that numbers will increase in clusters as test results are returned. It will not be an even curve due to this.

WEEK 10 PROJECTIONS

[Week 10 projections added on March 24, 2020]

Week 9 far exceeded the 25% daily increase (doubling roughly every three days) and had an average daily increase of 37.89%.

As noted, as testing increases, the numbers will go up like this.

Also, on Monday, March 23rd, US Surgeon General Jerome Adams said: “I want America to understand: this week, it’s going to get bad and we really need to come together as a nation.”

That said, we’re going to offer two versions of the projections for Week 10 based on actual numbers as of Week 9. One at the 25% increase and another at the 37.89% increase that we saw last week. The numbers beyond week 10 will be updated at a later date.

WEEK 10 PROJECTION set at 25.00%

WEEK 10 PROJECTION set at 37.89%

UPDATE: WEEK 10 (ACTUAL STATS)

[Updated March 27, 2020]

Through the first three days of Week 10, the increase is right where they have said it should be.

WEEKS 11-12 [PROJECTION set at 25.00% increase per day]

Assuming that social isolation works, new cases should start to decrease in weeks 11 & 12.

But sticking with a 25% increase per day here’s what we’re looking at.

As you can see, once the ball gets rolling, it picks up steam fast.

By Easter Sunday, we could be looking at MILLIONS of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States.

If the average increase is more than 25%, we’d see the following results by April 13th:

27.5% = 4,140,407 cases
30.0% = 7,131,349 cases
32.5% = 12,156,328 cases
35.0% = 20,516,504 cases

WEEKS 13-14 [PROJECTION set at 25.00% increase per day]

If COVID-19 is still going strong in weeks 13 & 14, things around here will not be pleasant.

Again, sticking with a 25% increase per day here’s what we’re looking at.

If the average increase is more than 25%, we’d see the following results by April 27th:

27.5% = 124,218,303 cases
30.0% = 280,788,055 cases

At 30.5% the entire population of the United States would be infected with COVID-19.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Please pay attention to suggestions made by local, state & federal government authorities. By doing so we can stop the spread of COVID-19 and get back to life as normal sooner rather than later.

Do not make the federal government to be forced into setting mandatory quarantines as other countries have done. That option is “on the table”, but please think of yourself AND others so that card doesn’t have to be played.

If you have anything to report or concern to voice, please leave us a message on the Buzzline at 317-891-4627. Any messages might be played on a future episode of Naptown Buzz. And you can always contact us via our online form as well.